Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2026-07-01 Origin: Site
Recently, multiple authoritative meteorological agencies have confirmed that the central and eastern equatorial Pacific region entered an El Niño state in May 2026. This round of events is expected to persist at least until early 2027. This extreme climate phenomenon will significantly affect global natural rubber supply and deserves close attention from enterprises in the hose and belting industry.
When El Niño occurs, high temperatures and low rainfall are common in Southeast Asia. Drought leads to lower latex yield and fewer tapping days for rubber trees. In severe cases, it may induce pests and diseases such as powdery mildew and anthracnose, increasing the maintenance costs of rubber plantations. According to the latest forecasts from the National Climate Centre, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the probability of El Niño occurring from June to August 2026 is as high as 80% to 92%. It will continue to strengthen in autumn and winter, with its peak expected around November, making it highly probable to develop into a moderate-to-strong or even strong El Niño event.
Guosen Futures research reports have analyzed the impact patterns of major El Niño events over the past 30 years: if a moderate or stronger El Niño covers the peak production season, the output reduction effect in major producing countries is significant. The super-strong El Niño from 2015 to 2016 caused Thailand's per-unit yield to drop by 5% to 10% and Indonesia's by 5% to 12%. During the moderate-intensity event from 2023 to 2024, Thailand's output fell by 8% and Indonesia's by 13%. Notably, the blow to rubber output from drought has a cross-seasonal lag effect. Production cuts tend to manifest intensively from the end of the occurrence year to the following year, and price peaks generally lag behind the El Niño peak by about one year.
Compared with previous cycles, the current supply side is more fragile. Rubber tree ages in major Southeast Asian producing countries are generally aging, with trees over 25 years old accounting for 44% in Malaysia and about 47% in Indonesia. New planting areas globally have shrunk sharply over the past decade, significantly narrowing supply elasticity. Meanwhile, global natural rubber inventories are at low levels, meaning equivalent weather shocks may trigger more significant price fluctuations. A comprehensive assessment estimates that ANRPC member countries' natural rubber output will drop by 2.0% to 2.5% in 2026, and the supply gap will widen in the second half of the year.
Natural rubber is one of the core raw materials for hose and belting products. Tightening supply combined with an upward shift in the price center will directly drive up production costs in the industry. However, downstream tire exports are affected by uncertainties such as EU anti-dumping and countervailing investigations, and Middle East logistics channels have not fully recovered. Weakening demand may limit the room for price increases to some extent.
