The Global Timber Industry Suffers From The Impact of Transportation, And The Pressure And Potential of China's Timber Market Coexist

Itto data tracking the timber sector in China, Indonesia, Brazil, Congo, Mexico, Gabon and Malaysia show that the Global Timber Index (GTI) threshold in all seven pilot countries is below 50%, indicating an overall decline in the timber sector. Brazil tops the index at 47.2%; It was followed by Indonesia at 45.7 percent. Congo's index is 34.7%; China's index is 34.1%; Mexico's was 32.4%; Gabon's index is 31.4%; Malaysia's index is 26.8%.

Among them, the Global Timber Index report pointed out that the Red Sea conflict is affecting the stability of the global economy and freight transport, which has also had an impact on the timber industry. Timber traders from Brazil, China, Indonesia and Malaysia all reported higher transport costs, lower volumes and slower transport speeds.

In addition to transportation challenges, Gabonese timber traders noted a lack of sales channels for their timber as order volumes declined and production activity slowed in the NKOK Nkok Special Economic Zone in Gabon. Mexican lumber merchants face high customer turnover in the lumber industry, resulting in unstable order volumes. Unlike the situation in Gabon and Mexico, timber traders in Brazil, Congo and Malaysia reported an increase in orders in January compared to December 2023, indicating an improvement on the demand side of the international market.

Not only are orders falling and transportation problems mentioned in the report, but production is also shrinking in various timber producing countries. The decline in global production in 2023 is most pronounced compared to previous years (mainly in Europe, North America and Africa). Due to the intermittent operation of some wood mills, equipment costs have increased, and the volume of wood exports has not been able to offset this cost increase.

It is worth mentioning that despite the sluggish performance of the international timber market, some countries have made good progress in the legislation and sustainable development and management of the timber sector. For example, Brazil's Minister of Environment and Climate Change said at the World Economic Forum annual Meeting in January that environmental governance and monitoring actions have reduced deforestation in the Amazon region by 50 percent in 2023 compared to 2022, equivalent to about 250 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions.

According to the development trend of the international wood market in previous years, especially the domestic wood market, the change in import demand mainly occurred in the second quarter. At present, China's wood market is still facing certain pressure. However, from the perspective of imports in the fourth quarter of 2023, while there is pressure on the domestic market, it also has greater development potential.

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